Saturday, July 12, 2008
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama’s glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month’s NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Obama’s rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished rival Hillary Clinton in June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience, an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who’d slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June.
Obama’s reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he’s a flip-flopped. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage. Not good this early in a campaign.
More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama’s outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters.
In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June’s NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
From the Left 
One the one hand, this article is surprising because Obama came through the primary as a force of nature.
He single-handedly unseated the once, all-powerful Clinton machine and its control over the Democratic party. No one who followed politics thought Hillary could be stopped. Especially, in New York state and in California.
But as I said on a number of previous posts here, on KOS and other blogs, Obama triangulated like a cockroach running from the bright light. He knew how angry the Netroots were over FISA and how we felt betrayed.
If he loses to McCain, he only has himself to blame.
vicodaniel1987@yahoo.com
FISA. The issue of reversing on FISA will come back to haunt Barack Obama over the summer, to the convention and the debates with McCain in the fall. I am very surprised someone as smart as Obama wouldn’t see the potential damage of backing a bill that is perceived to undermine the Constitution.
Obama should have voted “NO” on the FISA bill.
People I talk to say they’re not bothered by Obama reversing on public finance because it costs so damned much to sun a campaign today, or even his statement that impeaching George W. Bush was “unacceptable.”
But the issue that really riles everyone I talk to is his FISA vote. Whether just or unjust, the vote is thought to be an assault on the Constitution and American, liberal, conservative of somewhere in the center, are deeply troubled by this.
If you think the superdelegates aren’t paying close attention to these polls, think again.
Obama nomination isn’t a done deal — far from it.
He’s the “presumptive nominee.” Meaning anything can change between now and the convention. I get the impression Obama is on a steep learning curve and sometimes his hubris gets in the way.
Don’t forget one thing. For all his fits and stumbles, McCain continues to get a “Free Pass” by the MSM. I have always suspected the pundits are secretly furious with Barack Obama for rewriting the script. They had all but crowned Hillary Clinton and they had planned her coronation. When Obama changed the game, the pundits looked foolish. They’ve been out to get him ever since.
Thank you for posting this poll, Christopher. I bet you will piss off a lot of Obama supporters who have already decided this is a push-poll intended to create anti-Obama sentiment. I might agree if it appeared on CNN or the Washington Times but NEWSWEEK isn’t know for push-polling.
I agree with Rachel.
This isn’t a push poll. I’ve seen enough push polls to identify one of them immediately. The poll shows a tightening of the race very early on.
I do think Obama needs to decide whether he’s running as a liberal or a centrist Democrat. He got where he is running as a liberal and now he is sprinting to the center. This strategy caused Hillary Clinton’s campaign to implode.
If he makes some grandiose announcement that he’s selected Hillary to be his vice president, I expect him to fall behind McCain in the polls by as much as 10%.
My older brother is so frustrated with Obama at this point that he’s decided to support Nader. I can’t break through to him. He cites the litany of policy reversals Obama has taken in recent weeks as the reason.
I’m not so sure. It smells a lot like a push-poll and I know Newsweek has published push-polls in the past.
Undermining the Fourth Amendment appears to be undermining Senator Barack Obama’s presidential aspirations.
You see, the American people aren’t as stupid as Washington DC seems to think.
Don’t bet on it. Newsweek, as a loyal minion of the Chimpromised MSM, picked the perfect time to take this poll-as in, during the swirl around FISA.
Now how do you suppose people would have answered a poll that got taken right after Phil Gramm’s comments? This is just the Chimpromised MSM’s attempt to plant a notion that doesn’t really exist in the minds of Americans.
As someone who doesnt live in the states, but who’s been following this election daily…it seems that McCain’s ridiculous policies have no where near the public scrutiny that any mistake Obama makes immediately receives.
It makes me wonder whether the US are subconsciously or consciously looking for reasons to continue on the same destructive path that Bush has laid out…
No candidate is perfect, nor will all their policies be in agreement with ours…
And repositioning to the centre before any election is pretty darn common.
I’m prayin that the US gathers a little perspective and doesn’t throw out the baby with the bathwater here,…. The world would be the poorer for it if we have a McBush term.
I don’t think it’s push polling either. Rasmussen has a poll showing similar results. Obama and McCain are in a statistical dead heat. In other words, by running to the middle, Obama has lost between 7 points and 15 points in a single month. This bodes very poorly for him in the General Election. Who is advising him? Bill Clinton?
I’m not buying it. I’d LOVE to see some polls taken right now, in the wake of Phil Gramm’s comments. Newsweek picked what one would charitably call an unfortunate time to ask questions about Obama.
Sorry, but the numbers are in line with the daily tracking polls.
We’re falling for a lot of reasons, but the two most obvious are McCain’s “solution” to drill our way out of $4.00 a gallon gas-prices, and Iran’s missile hoe-down.
Polls schmolls. Obama screwed up on several fronts– but even on Obama’s worst day –McSame is exponentially worse. None of us wants to have to choose between the lessor of two evils…… but clearly McSame will emerge as really out of it in the debates. Right now he’s doing hand picked town hall meetings.
Bush style. Can’t believe his family got away with non disclosure on the super wealthy wife’s income. We are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
I am surprised to see the polls tightening this many months before the General Election.
Usually polls don’t tighten like this until you’re a few weeks out from November and the effects of months campaign ads and debates settle in.
I know most political wonks adhere to the belief that Obama needs to move to the center in order to win the most votes. I totally disagree. He needs to be who he is — a liberal, because being a liberal and voting like a liberal got him where he is and the country is hungry for a liberal president.
Let’s just hope he doesn’t make the same mistakes that sunk Hillary Clinton. He can’t please the far right and the far left so he needs to decide who is most important. I say it’s the far left.