Employment May Stop Obama’s Reelection Victory Lap

Thursday, June 2, 2011

As President Obama roams the globe, dining with the British royalty and meeting with European heads of state, cashing in on his political capital as the president who gave the order to the Navy SEAL team to kill Osama bin Laden, Mr. Obama is faced with a grim reality.

No American president since Franklin D. Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent. Seventeen months before the official start of the 2012 election, it is clear President Obama must defy that trend to keep his job.

The New York Times reports:

Roughly 9 percent of Americans who want to go to work cannot find an employer. The number is higher in many regions and cities. Companies are firing fewer people, but hiring remains anemic and the vast majority of economic forecasters, including the president’s own advisers, predict only modest progress by November 2012.

The latest job numbers, due Friday, are expected to provide new cause for concern. Other indicators suggest the pace of growth is flagging. Weak manufacturing data, a gloomy reading on jobs in advance of Friday’s report and a drop in auto sales led the markets to their worst close since August, and those declines carried over into Asia Thursday.

More than 13.7 million Americans were unable to find work in April; most had been seeking jobs for months. Millions more have stopped trying. Their inability to earn money is a personal catastrophe; studies show that the chance of finding new work slips away with time. It is also a strain on their families, charities and public support programs.

Ronald Reagan won reelection despite facing 7.2 percent unemployment in November 1984, because the unemployment was actually falling and voters decided he was fixing the problem. Barack Obama hopes his story will follow that of his Republican hero.

However, in politics, past is usually prologue and unless employment greatly improves over the next seventeen months, I think the American people need to prepare for a period in history of a series of single-term presidents.

This entry was posted in 2012 Election, News, Politics, President Barack Obama and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

17 Responses to Employment May Stop Obama’s Reelection Victory Lap

  1. Joe in Colorado says:

    The power of history is greater than the power of the incumbency. Obama’s supporters say his reelection is written in stone but when the electorate goes to their voting place and they’ve been unemployed for months or even years, the temptation to reward this president with another four years just isn’t in their thinking. Like Obama or not, when it comes down to your personal survival, voters will elect anyone with a plan to fix the nation’s jobs problem.

  2. Herminio Sanchez says:

    Gas prices are a dollar higher this June over last June and the summer driving season isn’t underway yet.

    If unemployment is above 9% and gas prices are well over $3 dollars on Nov. 3, 2012, Obama won’t be reelected. The American people are forgiving but these are the classic bread and butter issues that drive voters thinking.

    At this point, the 2012 field is wide open.

  3. william wallace says:

    It be two terms of republican govt which brought the
    american people / its economy/ unto their /its knees.

    The republicans did NOT win election that put them in
    power of Govt // such done via massive voting fraud as
    aided by a appalling USA corrupt supreme court rulling.

    Republicans in Govt / carried out dire policies /based on
    extreme half-baked / crackpot/ religious ideas as beliefs.

    Thus the ivasion of nations the setting up of puppet Govts
    hundreds of thousands killed /untodl suffering destruction.

    In knowing they were to be evicted from Govt/republicans
    used a burn destroy action against their own people / where
    leaving govt depts in a appalling state of ruin /a USA isolated
    from the world due to the appalling actions against humanity.

    A dire final crime by republicans was their removal of banking
    regulation. // Banking regulation // measures put in place that
    protected against banking fraud. With such measures removed
    bank doors were opened unto appalling levels of banking frauds.
    Within a short period bringing a western banking crisis/followed
    by anbanking collapse. $Billions on $billions lost // millions made
    unemployed // many having lost both home /as their life savings.

    The republicans left an dire situation for democrats in taking govt
    a situation where bringing Govt depts // back to an working order
    could take a decade. // A awesome task in bringing the economy to
    a stable level /clearing the massive debt /placed on every american.

    Barack / Hillary/ democrats in Govt in having to deal with problems
    not of their making// problems that will take time in putting to rights.

    Democrats need also continue a healing process with the many nations
    unto which great wrongs done under a cruel decade of republican Govt
    a republican Govt that abandoned international law as domestic law /&
    embarked on a campaign of great wrongs/injustice against all humanity.

  4. Scott Dancer says:

    Housing is the cancer destroying our economy.

    As I’ve said many times on this fine blog, as a real estate broker, I see the nagging effects of record foreclosures and inabilities to get new mortgages everyday. Housing and employment go hand-in-hand. If you don’t have a job, you can’t get a mortgage. If you have a house and you must sell it, listings stay on the MLS for 200 and 300 days.

    Factor into the equation, the supporting industries. The big box home improvement retailers are hurting as fewer Americans redo their bathrooms and kitchens and delay buying new furniture. It’s a vicious cycle that perpetuates itself.

    One of the most odorous things I’ve witnessed from President Obama was his cynical mortgage refinance program. Of the 4.5 million borrowers under water, fewer than 10% of them or 450,000 were helped. Homeowners rightly say this president doesn’t care about them. I hear it everyday and I’ve heard it for 2 1/2 years.

    When homeowners walk away from their biggest investment: their home and they feel abandoned by this president, make no mistake about it, these people won’t vote for Obama come 2012.

  5. Brigadoon says:

    It’s funny you mention an era of single term presidents. A bunch of us on Memorial Day were talking about politics and whether the country would be better served if the term for a president is changed to a single, six year term like in France? This would relieve a president of spending his 3rd and 4th year raising money and running for reelection.

  6. feminazi says:

    What happened to the alliance between Obama and Bill Clinton? They were said to have buried the hatchet, Clinton was going to help Obama solve the jobs mess Obama is clearly clueless about fixing. Maybe the hatchet wasn’t buried after all? All I know is, when people are desperate, they will elect anyone if they have a plan.

  7. Big Hank says:

    feminazi – The Clintons will give Obama just enough rope so he can hang himself and thus pave the way for Hillary to run for president in 2012 or 2016.

    The Clintons are wildly ambitious and Bill isn’t about to help the guy who he sees as defeating the Misses. Can you imagine the hell she put Bill through the first six months after the 2008 election? She had to me a pit bull in a Rayon pantsuit.

  8. scaredstiff says:

    Man he had the world by the balls to start with and blew it. The model of how to get everyone working has been tried and it worked. No guess work, Barry…
    Maybe he though prosperity would “trickle down” to the rest of us from wall street.
    Damn shame!

  9. Vivzz says:

    Obama surrounded himself with boys and girls from Goldman Sachs. They were hired by Obama to fill literally dozens of cabinet positions. The worst — it goes without saying is Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, Thomas E. Donilon, all defenders of Goldman Sachs and yet, many people on the American left are either not concerned or don’t care. For them, it’s enough that Mr. Obama is “America’s first black president” and not Bush.

  10. Rachel says:

    Team Obama will tell voters he saved the US auto industry but he can’t point to new jobs creation because, in the immortal words of Imelda Marcos, “there is none.” I have said for a year, Obama is vulnerable and it is 100% due to failing to create new jobs.

  11. Pingback: Employment May Destroy Obama's Reelection Victory Lap | From the Left | Employment

  12. Obama’s Labor Department can keep telling the country unemployment is 9% but this reporting is pure, unadulterated fiction. Yeah, fiction. A nice way of saying it’s a lie.

    Real unemployment in the US is 21.5% and as a measurement if Obama has earned another term as president, then the answer is no.

    Consider please. The official definition of unemployment used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes anyone age 16 or older who is not institutionalized and is not currently employed, but able to work, available for work, and actively seeking work.

    The official definition of unemployment also excludes subgroups who are sometimes thought of as being unemployed or “underemployed.” Those who would like to work, but who have stopped looking for work, the so-called discouraged workers who are not counted in the official definition because they are not actively seeking work.

    People working part time who would prefer full-time work are also not counted as unemployed because they are working – albeit fewer hours than they would like to work if work was offered.

    If the IRS should released this information, I think the American public, members of both the Democratic and Republican parties and independents alike, would storm Washington DC demanding action.

    In actual numbers, we need to see between 400,000 and 750,000 new jobs — and this means full-time jobs with medical benefits created each month. No wonder Obama spends as much time out of the country as possible. He’s a flop.

  13. Peace Nick says:

    Leave it to the New York Times to give Barry a “pass” and under report unemployment by almost 2/3rds.

    They never disappoint.

  14. Jolly Roger says:

    That Klanbagger Manifesto has very little to do with my complaints with the President. Hell, I’d even be willing to be understanding about the employment rate, if he’d do something besides cave in on the policies that CAUSED the unemployment rate. But unless he decided to draw a frigging line somewhere, he may be more harmful that someone like Romney. Not that I’d consider a vote for that clown either, of course.

  15. william wallace says:

    JOLLY ROGER / You’ve got to come more / to terms with
    the reality of the situation. It be not BARACK / HILLARY
    whom hold the power. /It the few whom owning the worlds
    wealth whom pull the strings /it they controling the agenda
    via a 24/7 a well established / OILED western brainwashing
    MEDIA propaganda // they can turn the hero into the villian
    overnight. Through control of wealth they own as controling
    the federal reserve. Such power allows them / controling not
    only the party in power / but whom holds what position in all
    other political parties. / They make domestic as international
    policy based on increased weath /BACKED BY military power.

    BARACK is limited in actions // the media if the powers that be
    WISH can be placed in a ruthless campaign AGIN him overnight
    the spearhead being that he’s not a true american // etc /etc etc
    in bringing his downfall. The other actions his murder / or to be
    kinder in words his assassination / turning the next election into
    a black agaist white issue which resulting in a republican victory.

    HOWEVER the bigger picture. Over the past few decades political
    parties as politicians /having been reduced in power to such extent
    elections in having turned into a complete farce /unto the extreme
    the crowning glory with the republicans and Bush coming to power
    which done through massive voting fraud /aided by a corrupt USA
    supreme court ruling / bringing a abandonment of international law
    domestic law // allowing a invasion of nations / of appalling injustice.

    Thus the crux of the matter whom to govern the american people ?.

    Should elections which having become but a farce just be abandoned
    and accept the reality that a few will continue in controling the many.

    Or should elections continue in taking place /as to satisy / the millions
    whom still believe that their vote has some value // that it be counted.

    If the USA abandons elections / then it can be the military dictatorship
    which it truly having becoming /no more using a defence of democracy
    a defence of freedom as a cover in its ambitions its having control of all
    all nations // thus through military threat / control the worlds nations.

    If elections are not to be abandoned // then the situation such /there
    must be REAL CHANGE where jo the plumber public are not treated
    as mere sheep to be fleeced // children not seen as lamb for slaughter
    where being a balance betwixt the power of wealth //as human rights
    allowing a far more just world. The western media 24/7 brainwashing
    agenda is brought under control in allowing all peoples free access unto
    the international stage where giving free opinion // allowing once again
    an development of the brain /that humanity may reach their final goal.

  16. Insouciant says:

    The unemployment rate jumped to 9.1%. Not a good trend with an election looming.

  17. william wallace says:

    Insouciant // Its a simple solution. The media spins out at least another five
    terrorist nations have weopons of mass destruction. Thus being a compilsory
    call to arms. All americans prepared in defending DEMOCRACY /FREEDOM.

    All the unemployed joining the military or in employment that provides the
    means in the upkeep of a nation at war // ammunition // tanks / planes / etc
    AMERICA will be back to full employment/and the world will be a safer place.

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